Saturday, December 14, 2013

French Hypocrisy at Its Finest: France Broadens Its Surveillance Power; "Susie Did It Too!"

In October, French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said he was "deeply shocked" by reports that the US National Security Agency had secretly monitored tens of millions of phone conversations within France and demanded an explanation.

"Susie Did It Too!"

The U.S. response was 'All Nations' Spy as if that makes the practice of blanket spying on citizens OK.

Our response was like that of a 6-year old kid caught raiding the cookie jar, responding "Susie did it too!"

French Hypocricy at Its Finest

Two days ago the Voice of Russia noted France steps up net surveillance weeks after protesting against NSA spying.


The French government has adopted a bill allowing the authorities to access and gather internet user data in real time without judicial approval. The senate approved the legislation just weeks after France expressed outrage at NSA spying practices. The bill has been slammed by activists as going "against the principles of democracy".

The measures, given final parliamentary approval by the senate on Tuesday night, extend authority to gather digital information, previously limited to intelligence agencies, to the defense, interior, finance and budget ministries.

The law gives French intelligence services access to telephone and Internet usage data that would let them locate and follow the target of a terrorism investigation in real time. In addition, the law provides agents with access not just to meta data about users from website hosts but allows them to seize content stored on websites and in clouds. It also provides for access in real time to the location of mobile devices.

The information can be demanded without the prior approval of a judge, as previously required but there will be post-facto monitoring by national oversight bodies. Currently in France, authorities are required to apply for a warrant to access this information, a process that usually takes several months.
France Broadens Its Surveillance Power

Today the New York Times confirms the report in France Broadens Its Surveillance Power.

The upfront details are the same although Russia Today had more of them. In turn, the NYT has a few interesting items of its own. Let's pick up this story in the middle.
The Association des Services Internet Communautaires, or @sic, an advocacy group whose members include AOL, eBay, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and several top French Internet companies, discovered the new legislation essentially by chance.

“There was no consultation at all,” said Giuseppe de Martino, @sic’s director and an executive at Dailymotion, a French online video service. “No one said anything about it to us.”

The National Commission for Information Technology and Freedoms, a state administration meant to protect the rights and privacy of citizens, said it was not consulted on the contentious elements of the bill, though it was asked to review other provisions.

The government denied any effort to shield the law from public scrutiny. The bill went through four votes in Parliament, noted one government official. “Not exactly discreet, as maneuvers go,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Please note the irony in that last paragraph.

French Citizens Should Have Been Angry for 23 Years

In still further irony, Jean-Pierre Sueur, a senator from President François Hollande’s Socialist Party, said identical provisions have been in place since the passage of an electronic intercepts law in 1991. “If they’re angry about this, they ought to have been angry for 23 years,” Mr. Sueur said.

PRECISELY!

Unfortunately, no one knew about the spying until now, because it was hidden.

Thus once again I sing the praises of U.S. and international public hero Edward Snowden, for revealing precisely what governments are doing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Have a bottle of wine but no corkscrew?

Should you ever find yourself in that situation, I offer the following video as a public service announcement.



Link if video does not play: How to Open a Wine Bottle With a Shoe

Thanks to reader "Bob" who sent me the video.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Friday, December 13, 2013

Stockton Doomed to Another Bankruptcy; Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

Heading into bankruptcy Stockton, California had about $147 million in unfunded pension obligations and about $250 million in debt from various bond issues.

The city could have and should have shed some of those pension obligations and made changes in various pension agreements, but it didn't.

It did shed bond debt for one cent on the dollar, subject to lawsuits.

Stockton Doomed to Another "Stigma of Bankruptcy"

The New York Times reports Stockton Return to Solvency, With Pension Problem Unsolved
Battered by a collapse in real estate prices, a spike in pension and retiree health care costs, and unmanageable debt, this struggling city in the Central Valley has labored for months to find a way out of Chapter 9. Now having renegotiated its debt with most creditors, cobbled together layoffs and service cuts and raised the sales tax to 9 percent from 8.25 percent, Stockton is nearly ready to leave court protection.

But what Stockton, along with pretty much every other city in California that has gone into bankruptcy in recent years, has not done is address the skyrocketing public pensions that are at the heart of many of these cases.

“No city wants to take on the state pension system by itself,” said Stockton’s new mayor, Anthony Silva, referring to the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, or Calpers. “Every city thinks some other city will take care of it.”

“They wanted to get out of bankruptcy in the worst possible way, and that’s just what they did,” said Dean Andal of the San Joaquin County Taxpayers Association, which fought the sales-tax increase. “If they go ahead and hire those new police officers, the city will be back in insolvency in four years.”

City officials insist their plan will work. “We got the tax, and thank God it passed,” Councilman Holman said. “I have confidence that the numbers line up.”

Nor does the Detroit ruling this week make Stockton want to revisit pension reductions. Connie Cochran, a city spokeswoman, said that city workers had already seen their pay and retiree health benefits cut. In addition, she said, Calpers told the city that its only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system, and Stockton could not afford it.

Mayor Silva said the city’s plan would help it out of bankruptcy sometime late next spring, if all goes well, after the judge hearing the case has time to rule on its fairness and viability and negotiations can be completed with one final bondholding creditor.

“We will lose the stigma of bankruptcy, and it will buy us time,” he said.
Getting Out of bankruptcy the Worst Possible Way

I am hoping the judge tells Stockton its plan is not viable (for the simple reason it isn't viable).

Raising taxes is not the way you deal with preposterous pension obligations.

When CalPERS  told the city "the only option was to pay a $970 million termination fee to leave the system" the city could have and should have spit in their face (not literally of course).

The polite way of doing that would have been a balanced blend of pension haircuts and bond haircuts.

Instead, by putting 100% of the burden on bondholders, the city virtually ensured inability to issue further bonds at a reasonable interest rate. Moreover, the city punished taxpayers, and did nothing to fix untenable pension obligations.

Stockton is doomed unless the bankruptcy judge handing the case sends Stockton back to the drawing board.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Dirty Jobs" Mike Rowe on the High Cost of College; Get Ready to Get Dirty; What's Wrong With the College Model?

Mike Rowe, host of the Discovery Channel series Dirty Jobs chimes in on the US education system in an interview with Nick Gillespie on Reason.Com.



click on above link if video does not play

Rowe: If we are lending money that ostensibly we don't have to kids who have no hope of making it back in order to train them for jobs that clearly don't exist, I might suggest that we've gone around the bend a little bit.

Gillespie: We are doing everything we can to push every kid to go to a four-year college. What's wrong with that?
Rowe: It's not working. You have a trillion dollars in debt on the student loan side. You have a skills gap, something [interrupted by Gillespie]

Gillespie: What do you mean a skills gap?
Rowe: Right now you have about 3 million jobs in transportation, commerce, trades, that can't be filled.  

Gillespie: Anything from carpentry to electricians, plumbers,
Rowe: [interjects] Heating, electric, truck drivers, welders is a big one, jobs that typically parents don't sit down and say to their kids - look if all goes well, this is what you are going to do.

Rowe's advice is summed up in the following clip I took from the video.

Get Ready to Get Dirty



The video is a lengthy 41 minutes but Reason.com provides this synopsis so you can skip to topics that interest you.

  • His bad experience with a high school guidance counselor (3:20)
  • Why he provides scholarships based on work ethic (6:57)
  • The problem with taxpayer-supported college loans (8:40)
  • Why America demonizes dirty jobs (11:32)
  • The happiest day of his life (13:14)
  • Why following your passion is terrible advice (17:05)
  • Why it's so hard to hire good people (21:04)
  • The hidden cost of regulatory compliance (23:16)
  • The problem with Obama's promise to create shovel ready jobs (33:05)
  • Efficiency versus effectiveness (34:17)
  • Life after Dirty Jobs (38:24)

Work Smart, Not Hard



The 3:20 mark discusses this higher education ad campaign thrust upon Rowe by Mr. Dunbar, high school guidance counselor

Picking up at the 7:50 mark ...

Gillespie: When did the idea disappear that you should learn a skill that is actually useful or in need?
Rowe: That's a good question for a real social anthropologist. My own opinion is there is a kind of inertia that most parents would agree that it exists. And it's  a desire see something better for your kids than you had. The question of course is "what is better?" Is it better, right now today, to have $140,000 in debt but a degree from Georgetown, or is it better to be that kid I described in Butler.

It's an excellent interview, please listen to at least a portion of it.

My Take

  1. At the right price, college may be a good choice, but it's not always a good choice. 
  2. Government interference in education has so increased the cost of education, and so many kids are pushed into totally useless degrees, that college is an increasingly poor choice until costs come down. 
  3. Points one and two especially hold true for those in programs that qualify a person to do nothing but work as a retail clerk upon graduation.
  4. To help bring down education costs, we need more alternative courses, more two-year trade courses, more online courses, reduced administration costs, and termination of defined benefit pension plans for teachers. Simply put, we need more competition and reduced costs at every point in the system.
  5. The student loan program is an abysmal failure and should be abolished.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Italy's "Pitchfork Protests" Spread to Rome; Interior Minister Warns of "Drift Into Rebellion"

Over the past four days "pitchfork protests" have spread to numerous cities, disrupting road and rail travel in protest of the state of the economy.

The pitchfork movement started with a loose group of Sicilian farmers concerned about rising taxes and cuts to agricultural state funds, then evolved into a nationwide umbrella grouping of truckers, small businessman, the unemployed, low-paid workers, rightwing extremists and ultras football supporters according to IBTimes.

Map of Major Protests



Map courtesy of Stratfor.

Pitchfork Protests Spread to Rome

Reuters reports Italy's 'pitchfork protests,' in fourth day, spread to Rome.
Italy's "pitchfork" protests spread to Rome on Thursday when hundreds of students clashed with police and threw firecrackers outside a university where government ministers were attending a conference.

Truckers, small businessmen, the unemployed, students and low-paid workers have staged four days of rallies in cities from Turin in the north to Sicily in the south in the name of the "pitchfork" movement, originally a loosely organized group of farmers from Sicily.
"There are millions of us and we are growing by the hour. This government has to go," said Danilo Calvani, a farmer who has emerged as one of the leader of the protests.

Interior Minister Angelino Alfano told parliament the unrest could "lead to a spiral of rebellion against national and European institutions."

The protests are fuelled by falling incomes, unemployment above 12 percent and at a record 41 percent among people below 25, and graft and scandals among politicians widely seen as serving their own rather than the country's interests.

The protesters' precise aims remain vague beyond demanding the government be replaced and parliament dissolved. Targets range from tax collection agency Equitalia and high fuel prices to privileged elites and the euro.

Mario Borghezio, an outspoken Northern League member of the European Parliament, on Thursday used the protests to attack the euro and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi.

"The wind of revolt that is blowing in Italy today is the direct result of the euro and the wrong choices made by the EU and the ECB," he said during the ECB chief's testimony to the European Parliament.

'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government

The BBC reports 'Pitchfork' Protests Rattle Italian Government
First it was the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by charismatic comedian Beppe Grillo, that shook up Italy's political landscape.

Now a new populist movement headed by disgruntled farmers and lorry drivers has taken its anti-austerity message to Italy's streets and squares.

The past week has seen four days of rallies and protest actions across the country by the Forconi, or "Pitchforks". The name derives from the movement's roots among struggling farmers in Sicily, who in 2011 and 2012 staged strikes and roadblocks to demand more help from the government.

The loose-knit grouping has expanded nationwide and has drawn in a variety of groups who have suffered badly as Italy's economic crisis has dragged on. The protesters include road hauliers, small businessmen, low-paid workers, the unemployed and students.

Some of the protesters complain of excessive state regulation and are unhappy about austerity-driven tax hikes. Others have denounced capitalism and the euro.

All seem to be united in their contempt for Italy's politicians, who are accused of failing to address the country's grave economic problems.

'Drift into rebellion'

The Italian government on Thursday expressed its concern and Interior Minister Angelino Alfano warned of the danger of a "drift into rebellion" by the movement. He spoke of the protests drawing in elements bent on violence.
Beppe Grillo Urges Police to Join Movement

Reuters reports Italy's Grillo urges police to join "pitchfork" protests
The head of Italy's anti-establishment 5-Star Movement Beppe Grillo urged police on Tuesday to join protesters as a wave of "pitchfork" protests gave vent to bitter frustration after years of austerity and recession.

Grillo, whose movement has no direct connection with the protests, welcomed reports that several police officers took off their riot helmets and expressed sympathy with demonstrators on Monday.

"Italians are on your side. Join them. At the next demonstrations, tell your guys to take off their helmets and fraternize with the citizens," he wrote on his popular blog. "It will be an extreme, peaceful and revolutionary signal and Italy will change," he wrote.

Though there are no direct ties to Grillo's movement, both tap into the growing anger in many parts of Italy after the worst recession in postwar history.

Letta has warned repeatedly that opposition to the government and the EU is growing strongly, fuelled by sacrifices needed to keep public finances in order and which could result in a massive anti-EU vote in next year's European parliamentary elections.
Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

I repeat once again my 2011 message Eventually, Will Come a Time When ....

Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.

Greece, Finland, Germany, Belgium, and even France are possibilities. All it will take, is for one charismatic person, timing social mood correctly, to say precisely one right thing at exactly the right time. It will happen.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Using Universal Analytics to Measure Movement

The following is a guest post by Benjamin Mangold, Director of Digital & Analytics at Loves Data, a Google Analytics Certified Partner.

Universal Analytics includes new JavaScript tracking code for websites and new mobile SDKs. But Universal Analytics is a lot more than that - it also gives us the Measurement Protocol, which allows us to send data to Google Analytics without the need to use the tracking code or SDKs.

Earlier this year, the team at Loves Data used Universal Analytics and the Measurement Protocol to measure their caffeine consumption and tie it to the team’s productivity. Our next challenge: measuring our team’s movement into Google Analytics. With the help of an Xbox Kinect, movement recognition software, and of course the Measurement Protocol, we started getting creative!



Business Applications and Analysis Opportunities

So measuring movement is fun and although we can measure total and unique dance moves you might be wondering about the business applications. This is where the power of measuring offline interactions can really start to be seen. The Measurement Protocol enables business applications such as:
  • Measuring in-store purchases and tying purchases to your online data
  • Understanding behaviour across any connected device, including gaming consoles
  • Comparing offline billboard impressions to online display ad impressions
  • Getting insights into your audience’s online to offline journey
Once you have tied your online and offline data together you can begin to analyze the full impact of your different touch points. For example, if you are collecting contact details online, you can use Google Analytics to then understand who actually converts offline, whether this conversion is attending an information session or making a purchase at a cash register. The analysis possibilities made available by the Measurement Protocol are truly amazing.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Does the US Have Enough Military Bases?

Inquiring minds might be interested in the analysis of artist Josh Begley who catalogs every U.S. military base in the world. Here is a representation.



Gizmodo comments on the Chilling Geometry of Every US Military Base Seen From Space.
The United States military is everywhere. It's so big that it's hard to quantify just how massive it is—any number used to describe it is so large that it defies the understanding of an ordinary human brain.

A self-described "data artist," Begley has started an ongoing effort to collect satellite imagery from every U.S. military installation in the world. The initial map, parked at Empire.is, collects all of the data listed in the Department of Defense's 2013 Base Structure Report. The official report doesn't include the military's secret bases, though, so Begley has included others that have been unearthed—and he encourages people to submit information for others that he's missing.

The resulting collection is mind-boggling. At the top, there's a zoomable world map with all of the installations plotted. Keep zooming in, and eventually the map will reveal the satellite imagery for each location, assuming it exists. As Begley points out, plenty of sites have been censored from public view.
Mapping the United States Military Footprint

Please consider Mapping the United States Military Footprint on Google Maps Mania (an unofficial Google Maps blog tracking the websites, mashups and tools being influenced by Google Maps).
The United States has well over 700 military bases across the planet with official facilities in at least 37 countries. Empire.is is a map showing the location of United States military installations, not only in the US but around the world.

As well as mapping known United States military installations Empire.es also provides aerial imagery of a large number of the bases, sourced from Google and Bing Maps.

The data for the military locations is from the 2013 Base Structure Report and from sites reported by journalists and geographers. The author of the map says that there are still many military bases missing from the map.

Image from Empire.Is 



Questions

  1. Given that any satellite can pick up this information, is there any rational reason to have "secret bases"?
  2. Is any base really a secret?
  3. Would US security be hampered if 25% of the bases were shut down? 50%? 80%?

The answers are 1-no, 2-no, 3-no, no, no.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com